2010 Fantasy Outlook: Elton Brand

When the Sixers added Elton Brand in the summer of 2008, it seemed as though the Sixers would become relevant in the Eastern Conference again.  And then Brand played some (key word is “some”) games.  And it seemed as though a square peg would fit better into a round hole than Brand did into the 76ers’ offense.

That said, Brand, who has only played 37 games in the past two seasons, recently revealed that he was never 100 percent last season.  (In the season before joining the Sixers, Brand ruptured his Achilles tendon and only played eight games.)

Now Brand claims to be fully healed from both injuries.  After major injuries in back-to-back seasons, the obvious question is: Can he remain healthy for a full season?  There certainly is reason to be concerned, but I’m taking a glass-half-full view here and think that last year’s shoulder injury really helped his Achilles fully heal.

Provided he stays healthy, the next obvious question is: Will the Princeton offense suit his game (a lot) better than last year’s offense did?  So far, Brand seems quicker than he did last year.  But he’s struggling a bit in the new offense.  That being said, so are the other Sixers’ players.

“We need a horse,” [coach Eddie] Jordan said, per Kate Fagan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “Everybody needs a horse. And we call him our horse. It’s just a matter of him fitting into our offense, being patient in the offense for his teammates. I don’t mind him being overly aggressive right now; I want him to feel good, find his way, and then you can pull back the reins a little bit. . . . Eventually he’s going to have to look at the whole picture and say, ‘How can I help my teammates?’ And he does it defensively; he has to do it offensively.”

Brand, who is likely to be drafted in the third or fourth round, is averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds for his career.  Only three other active players (Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal) can boast that.

But in the 37 games he’s played in the past two years, he’s averaged only 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.  Brand, who is a career 50-percent shooter, has shot only 45 percent from the field in the past two seasons.

Of all players in the NBA, Brand is the epitome of high risk/reward for your fantasy draft.  You’ll find plenty who believe he could be a steal or a bust.

My view is that he’ll perform somewhere midway between his career numbers and the last couple of years.  So if we split his career averages with the averages of his two recent injury-plagued seasons, he would project as follows: 17.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game.

Last season, there were nine players that averaged 9.3+ RPG.  Of those nine players, only five averaged at least 17.3 PPG.  And only two of those players, averaged 1.8+ BPG.

While I wouldn’t draft Brand in the first two rounds, I would certainly consider drafting him in the third round.  In the fourth round, I think he becomes a steal.

Tags: Eddie Jordan, Elton Brand